EXPLAINER: If El Niño is here, why is it raining in the PH?

The strengthening El Niño is sowing fear across the globe, and in the Philippines, the phenomenon usually means less rainfall.

But persistent and heavy rains have poured over several areas in Luzon, including Metro Manila, triggering massive flooding. So, why?

According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the simple answer: Habagat season.

“Kung ito (El Niño) ay nangyayari sa panahon ng habagat, nag-ko-contribute ito sa pag-enhance ng ating habagat na kung saan maraming ulan na natatanggap,” PAGASA climate monitoring and prediction unit chief Ana Solmoro-Solis told GMA News in an interview.

(If El Niño happens during the southwest monsoon season, it contributes to the enhancement of the southwest monsoon, resulting in more rainfall.)

Solmoro-Solis said the southwest monsoon or habagat is seen to affect Philippine weather until October.

El Niño, however, may extend until 2027. What happens then?

“Magkakaroon ng significant reduction sa ulan, at isa pa, mainit ang temperatura so mabilis evaporation rate ng katubigan…Usually, pwede itong mauwi sa dry spell,” Solmoro-Solis explained.

(There will be a significant reduction in rainfall, and temperatures will be hot, so the evaporation rate will be quick...Usually, this could bring about dry spells.)

If El Niño persists, she said, prolonged drought can occur, which may severely impact agriculture, irrigation, dams and water systems.

“Kapag tumindi, socioeconomic drought ang posibleng maranasan,” Solmoro-Solis added.

(If it worsens, we might experience socioeconomic drought.)

According to PAGASA, even the water supply of the country may suffer, especially in Angat Dam-dependent Metro Manila.

“Alam natin na mababa ang level ng Angat Dam kahit ito’y nadadagdagan sa panahon ng habagat… kailangan pa rin magtipid ng tubig kasi posible pa ring maapektuhan lalo kapag nagtagal El Niño,” Solmoro-Solis said.

(We know that the water level in the Angat Dam is already low despite water being added through monsoon rains...We need to conserve water, because water supply can be affected if El Niño persists.)

This could especially be felt from February to April, which is usually categorized by less to no rainfall, she added.

Weak to moderate El Niño now

Solmoro-Solis said the El Niño is categorized as weak to moderate now. But, she noted, it doesn’t mean its impact can be shrugged off.

“Nandiyan pa rin banta na posibleng typhoon at super typhoon category ng ating mga bagyo at nag-pa-pa-enhance ng habagat na posibleng mas maraming ulan,” she added.

(The threat of possible typhoons and super typhoons remains, and it may continue to enhance the southwest monsoon, bringing more rain.)

The United Nations has said the strengthening El Niño is “adding fuel to a planet already on fire.”

As El Niño continues to gain strength, the UN World Food Programme also warned that nearly 50 million more people across the globe could be pushed to acute hunger beginning in September. — BAP, GMA News